Quantitative
Finance
Finance, at its core, is probabilistic. Yet most SMEs operate with static, deterministic forecasts and ad-hoc assumptions. At Bakesell, we replace opinion-based planning with rigorous, adaptive models grounded in statistical learning, time-series analysis, and financial signal processing.
Services We Offer
Bakesell primarily uses mathematical and statistical modelling to understand behaviour - whether it’s market dynamics, pricing reactions, capital allocation, or customer value. Everything we build is grounded in sound logic.
Probabilistic Forecasting Engines
We build dynamic forecasting systems using methods such as ARIMA, Bayesian regression, and Monte Carlo simulations. These models continuously learn from your operational and financial data, producing confidence intervals — not just single-point predictions.
Cash Flow Simulation Models
Run forward-looking simulations that incorporate variability in payables, receivables, and revenue timing. Make capital allocation decisions with full understanding of downside and tail risk.
Variance Decomposition Analysis
Identify which inputs (e.g., customer segments, product lines, markets) contribute most to forecast volatility—then design policies to stabilise them.
Scenario & Sensitivity Frameworks
Built-in capability to run multiple macro/microeconomic assumptions across your P&L. Answer questions like: "What happens to cash runway if DSO stretches by 10 days and ARR slips by 15%?".
Our Solutions
Cashflow
forecasting
Real-time models that simulate revenue, hiring, and growth against changing market / business variables.
Pricing Optimization
& Revenue Logic
Frameworks and tools that align pricing with customer behaviour, cost structure, and strategic goals.
LTV / CAC &
margin diagnostics
Reach the right buyers, faster. Blend data, systems and product thinking to support early sales execution.
Portfolio-level
forecasting
Custom logic for family offices or capital-backed groups managing multiple entities.
Model Standards
and Validation
At Bakesell, all forecasting and financial modelling work adheres to internationally recognised reporting and planning principles.
Our implementations reflect the following foundations:
Global Accounting Standards
Our models are built in accordance with GIFI, IFRS-compliant structures, and established FP&A methodologies. This ensures outputs are auditable, interpretable, and directly integrable with enterprise finance workflows.
Robust Statistical Validation
Every forecasting engine undergoes rigorous backtesting using historical data and out-of-sample validation protocols. We benchmark performance on metrics such as MAPE, RMSE, and confidence interval coverage — tailored to each client’s industry profile and data maturity.
Would you value
Strategic planning with dynamic budget updates
Cash runway management under uncertainty
Pricing simulations with demand elasticity
Executive dashboards integrating real-time forecast data
